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Forex Market Analysis: Fed Speech, UK CPI Impact

CURRENCIES

EURO (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) technical analysis:

Fed Speak to Dominate Today’s Scheduled Risk Events:

Quiet day on the economic calendar in a generally quiet week.
Euro PMI data on Thursday is the next notable event.
Last few days of the month feature US PCE and EU inflation data.
Fed speakers continue to promote the idea of maintaining high interest rates to control inflation.
Afternoon speakers: Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams.
Williams previously hinted at potential rate hikes if inflation does not improve; current focus shifts to timing rate cuts.

EUR/USD Drifts Lower in Search of a Catalyst:

EUR/USD shows a slight downward trend after bouncing off channel resistance.
Quiet week favors higher-yielding currencies like the dollar.
The pair reversed before reaching overbought conditions, similar to the trend in March.
Resistance at the upper limit of the ascending channel; support at channel support, 1.0800 psychological level, and 200-day SMA.
A catalyst may emerge towards the end of next week with US PCE and EU inflation data.

EUR/USD Key Data:

EUR/GBP Eyes Support Ahead of UK CPI Print:

EUR/GBP started the year within a defined trading range, showing bullish momentum after breaking out.
Bullish advance struggled, facing resistance at the 200-day SMA.
Current selling shows fatigue, with potential support from trendline.
UK CPI data tomorrow could influence the pair’s direction.
- Expectation of a notable move lower from the prior month.
- Disappointment may lift sterling if data fails to meet low expectations.
- April data might surprise the upside with price rises and index-linked increases.
- If CPI meets or falls below consensus, EUR/GBP may rise as markets anticipate a BoE cut sooner.

Expectations for Nvidia’s Earnings:

Traders are anticipating a significant move in Nvidia’s shares post-earnings on Wednesday.
Nvidia’s options suggest an 8.7% swing in either direction by Friday.
This implies a market cap change of $200 billion, exceeding the market cap of about 90% of S&P 500 companies.

Nvidia’s Market Data:

Current Price: $947.80 +23.01 (2.49%) at close, $951.43 +3.63 (0.38%) pre-market.

Historical Comparison:

Analyst Insights:

Chris Murphy, Susquehanna Financial Group: “Volatility and expectations were higher previously.”
Nvidia’s stock, up 87% this year, is crucial for the AI industry with a market value of $2.3 trillion.
Wall Street anticipates a strong quarterly report from Nvidia.

Broader Market Impact:

AI-related gains are spreading to other sectors like power, commodities, and utilities.
BofA strategists expect Nvidia to drive 9% of S&P 500 earnings growth in the next 12 months, down from 37% over the last 12 months.

Options Market Sentiment:

Matt Amberson, ORATS: Implied volatility for out-of-the-money calls and puts is equal, indicating potential for both upside and downside moves.
Traders expect up moves to be as violent as down moves.

Projected Earnings: