Forex Market Analysis: US Dollar Trajectory and Stock Insights

2024/04/18

Forex Analysis: 18 April 2024 USD & Stock Market

CURRENCIES

US Dollar’s Current Trajectory: Despite a recent pullback from multi-month highs, the US dollar remains bullish. This comes after senior Federal Reserve officials suggested a potential delay in easing monetary policy due to strong economic indicators and persistent inflation.

Key Currency Pair Analysis: Technical analysis will next examine the US dollar against four major currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD. This section will detail the critical price levels that may act as support or resistance in the upcoming trading sessions.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: The EUR/USD pair found stability after recent declines, bouncing back from the key 1.0600 level and climbing above 1.0650. Resistance is anticipated at 1.0695 and 1.0725, with a further upside target at 1.0820. Conversely, if the downward pressure resumes, the 1.0600 mark is crucial for bulls to defend. A breach below could exacerbate selling, potentially pushing the pair towards the yearly low of around 1.0450.

STOCK MARKET

Impact of High Rates on Stocks: Despite recent concerns, high interest rates have not consistently hindered stock performance. Historical data shows variable effects of rate changes on the stock market.

Historical Performance Data: According to BMO Capital Markets, the S&P 500 showed a significant difference in performance based on the 10-year Treasury yield levels. When the yield was under 4%, the average annual return was 7.7%. However, when the yield rose to 6% or higher, the return nearly doubled to 14.5%.

Rate Direction and Stock Performance: Stocks have historically fared better during periods of rising rates compared to falling rates. Specifically, the S&P 500 averaged a 13.9% return during times of increasing rates, as opposed to only 6.5% during periods of declining rates. This pattern suggests that rising rates often coincide with stronger economic conditions.

Current Trends in Bond Yields and Stock Market: Since the beginning of April, the 10-year Treasury yield has surged by approximately 40 basis points to around 4.58%, a peak not seen since November 2023. Concurrently, the S&P 500 has experienced a decline of over 4%.

Market Outlook and Rate Expectations: Despite the uptick in yields driven by inflation concerns and revised expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the bond market’s response might reflect positive anticipations of economic growth and effective inflation management, which can benefit stocks. Belski from BMO projects that, with yields likely to stabilize between 4% and 5% and coupled with strong employment and earnings, the stock market is positioned for a successful year-end.

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